The USDA data set a bearish tone for oilseed markets with upward revisions to US and Brazilian crops. Global soyabean production in 2012-13 was revised almost 2m t higher than December estimates to 269.41m t (238.73m t in 2011-12). The drought-hit US crop is revised slightly higher after upward revisions to harvest area, but strong domestic and export demand is keeping US supplies thin with the world increasingly reliant on South American crops.
The Brazilian crop estimate has increased by 1.5m t since December, extending the expectations for the record crop to 82.5m t. This maintains Brazil’s recent status as the world’s top soyabean producer, overtaking the US this season. The region is seeing no repeat of last year’s drought with largely favourable conditions likely to provide a global oilseed supply boost in the coming weeks.
In stark contrast to last year’s drought, Argentina has been dogged by wet weather. This has delayed planting and USDA revises its soyabean production estimate 1m t lower to 54m t, but it remains a record.